Skip to content

Home Depot vs. Lowe’s: Home improvement leaders growth to recover next year in $1 trillion market | Insights

Key takeaways

• Industry Rebuilds From 2024 Bottom: The $1 trillion North America home-improvement industry may return to growth in 2025, climbing mid-single digits after two years of declines. Our intermediate-term view is underpinned by a rebound in existing home sales from trough levels, $32 trillion in homeowners’ equity and the oldest US housing stock on record.

US home improvement spending
  • Professionals Propel Industry Growth: The $500 billion market for pro contractors is projected to fuel industry growth over the next five years, climbing 4.4% annually vs. 3% for the DIY segment, according to HIRI. This should support higher sales growth at Home Depot given its 50% exposure– vs. 25% for Lowe’s — and $18 billion deal for SRS Distribution, which will accelerate its push among larger pro customers.
  • Brick and Mortar Evolution Continues: Home Depot is embarking on its first meaningful store expansion in over a decade — adding 80 new stores through 2027 – to tap underserved markets while relieving pressure in congested locations, supporting sales and productivity. Conversely, Lowe’s has reduced its footprint through the sale of its Canadian operations and is testing new concepts with rural assortments and outlets to drive sales.
  • Double-Digit Penetration Hammers Peers: Online penetration of 15% of total sales for Home Depot and 12% for Lowe’s stand far above the industry’s 8%, as the big-box peers leverage merchandising and supply-chain investments to grow channel share faster than smaller names. Lowe’s online penetration may reach the midteens and Home Depot the high teens in the next few years, contributing to above-industry sales growth.
  • EPS Accelerates, Depot Leads Long Term: Home Depot and Lowe’s EPS should rebound in 2025, with our analysis suggesting mid-to-high-single-digit growth for both after a challenging 2024. Longer term, Home Depot’s aggressive push into the complex pro market and resumption of buybacks after a period of deleveraging could fuel more robust gains.

Already a customer? Access the full report here.

Not a terminal user? Click here to learn more.

This is a synopsis of the full report. The data included in these materials are for illustrative purposes only. The BLOOMBERG TERMINAL service and Bloomberg data products (the “Services”) are owned and distributed by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (“BFLP”) except (i) in Argentina, Australia and certain jurisdictions in the Pacific Islands, Bermuda, China, India, Japan, Korea and New Zealand, where Bloomberg L.P. and its subsidiaries (“BLP”) distribute these products, and (ii) in Singapore and the jurisdictions serviced by Bloomberg’s Singapore office, where a subsidiary of BFLP distributes these products. BLP provides BFLP and its subsidiaries with global marketing and operational support and service. Certain features, functions, products and services are available only to sophisticated investors and only where permitted. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy of prices or other information in the Services. Nothing in the Services shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates, or as investment advice or recommendations by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates of an investment strategy or whether or not to “buy”, “sell” or “hold” an investment. Information available via the Services should not be considered as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. The following are trademarks and service marks of BFLP, a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries: BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG MARKETS, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG TERMINAL and BLOOMBERG.COM. Absence of any trademark or service mark from this list does not waive Bloomberg’s intellectual property rights in that name, mark or logo. All rights reserved. © 2024 Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Intelligence is a service provided by Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates. Bloomberg Intelligence likewise shall not constitute, nor be construed as, investment advice or investment recommendations, or as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. The Bloomberg Intelligence function, and the information provided by Bloomberg Intelligence, is impersonal and is not based on the consideration of any customer’s individual circumstances. You should determine on your own whether you agree with Bloomberg Intelligence. Bloomberg Intelligence Credit and Company research is offered only in certain jurisdictions. Bloomberg Intelligence should not be construed as tax or accounting advice or as a service designed to facilitate any Bloomberg Intelligence subscriber’s compliance with its tax, accounting, or other legal obligations. Employees involved in Bloomberg Intelligence may hold positions in the securities analyzed or discussed on Bloomberg Intelligence.